Skip to main content

The Top 10 Team Most Likely To Be Upset Saturday, Per 538

Will there be any big upsets this weekend?

As noted, there aren't any games between ranked teams this weekend in college football, so we'll have to rely on upsets for drama. Here's the one that FiveThirtyEight thinks is the most possible - at least among top ten teams.

According to FiveThirtyEight's playoff predictor, TCU only has a 65% chance of beating Kansas State. The Horned Frogs are currently undefeated and sit at No. 7 in the Coaches' Poll.

Here's the list of top ten teams playing this weekend.

  • Alabama is given a 97% chance to beat Arkansas
  • Clemson is given an 89% chance to beat Syracuse
  • Penn State is on a bye week
  • Washington is given an 86% chance to beat Arizona State
  • Georgia is given a 96% chance to beat Missouri
  • Wisconsin is given a 91% chance to beat Purdue
  • TCU is given a 65% chance to beat Kansas State
  • Ohio State is given a 91% chance to beat Nebraska
  • Washington State is given a 75% chance to beat Cal
  • Miami is given a 72% chance to beat Georgia Tech

The Horned Frogs do have to head to Kansas State, which is a tough place to play - so it isn't a crazy pick.

At this point, TCU may be the Big 12's best bet for putting a team in the College Football Playoff. We'll see if the Wildcats have other ideas.