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ESPN Updates Projected Win-Loss Record For Texas

Texas star safety Brandon Jones makes a play against Oklahoma State.

STILLWATER, OK - OCTOBER 27: Brandon Jones #19 of the Texas Longhorns nearly gets caught in the endzone for a safety as he is cornered by Kris McCune #32 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys on a punt return in the fourth quarter on October 27, 2018 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Oklahoma State won 38-35. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

It may not be the undefeated start that many Longhorn fans would have hoped, but Texas has looked strong to start the year. Tom Herman's team dispatched of Louisiana Tech and Rice without much issue, and fought hard against a very good LSU team in its only loss.

One of ESPN's advanced metrics still isn't buying in on the Longhorns this year. The team has climbed the site's Football Power Index a bit, but still sits at just No. 19, a decent amount below its human rankings (No. 12/13 this week).

FPI also isn't too bullish on how UT will finish. As of today, the fractional projected win-loss record is just 7.8-4.5.

Going into each game left on the schedule, there are just two that FPI gives Texas a less-than-50-percent chance of winning, but in aggregate, it only has UT going about 8-4.

Here are the game-by-game breakdowns for the rest of Texas' season.

  • vs. Oklahoma State: 61.4-percent chance to win
  • at West Virginia: 74.2-percent
  • vs. Oklahoma: 23.4-percent
  • vs. Kansas: 94.2-percent
  • at TCU: 58.3-percent
  • vs. Kansas State: 70.5-percent
  • at Iowa State: 56.7-percent
  • at Baylor: 48.8-percent
  • vs. Texas Tech: 80.5-percent

Even if the overall numbers aren't exactly what Texas fans would like to see, there is plenty of reason for optimism.

There are only two projected losses there, with the Oklahoma and Baylor games. We know Texas can beat Oklahoma, and the Longhorns will have a distinct talent advantage against the Bears, even if its a tough road environment. FPI has that one as basically a coin-flip.

The key will be holding serve in other toss-ups: TCU and Iowa State, two tough road games. Winning this weekend, and snapping a surprising four-game losing streak to Oklahoma State will be key as well. We know Tom Herman has plenty of respect for the Pokes.