Iowa football enters Week 3 at 2-0, with perhaps its biggest rivalry game on deck. The Hawkeyes head to Ames for a showdown with 1-0 Iowa State.
This edition of the Cy-Hawk game brings some extra juice as well. Ames will be the site of College GameDay for the first time ever.
Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, Iowa football has a slight edge entering the game. The metric gives Iowa a 57.7-percent to knock off the Cyclones for a fifth straight year.
Iowa owns a 44-22 all-time edge in the rivalry, which has been played annually since the late 1970s after a long layoff in the mid-20th Century.
Per the FPI, Iowa is on track to finish with a projected record of 8.5-3.8. You can round that to 9-3, using the game-by-game percentages calculated by the system.
Here are those individual game win percentage numbers:
- Sept. 14 – at Iowa State: 57.7-percent chance to win
- Sept. 28 – vs. Middle Tennessee: 94.1-percent
- Oct. 5 – at Michigan: 34.6-percent
- Oct. 12 – vs. Penn State: 38.2-percent
- Oct. 19 – vs. Purdue: 84.1-percent
- Oct. 26 – at Northwestern: 73.4-percent
- Nov. 9 – at Wisconsin: 27.8-percent
- Nov. 16 – vs. Minnesota: 72.8-percent
- Nov. 23 – vs. Illinois: 88.2-percent
- Nov. 29 – at Nebraska: 65.8-percent
FPI gives a 9.4-percent chance of Iowa winning the Big Ten Conference, and even a 0.2-percent chance of winning out. That would set up a likely showdown with Ohio State (with Michigan and Penn State each losing to Iowa in the regular season), in the title game, with the College Football Playoff on the line.
I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, but yes Hawkeye fans, FPI is saying there’s a chance.