Neither ESPN's FPI nor FiveThirtyEight's playoff projector thinks very highly of Michigan State.
Michigan State has rebounded nicely from a disappointing 2016 season, starting the campaign with a 6-1 record and a 4-0 conference mark. But it doesn't look like there are too many people high on the Spartans as a national title contender.
Michigan State has five games left - and ESPN projects that they'll finish 2-3 in them. FPI, which has them ranked all the way down at No. 42, predicts that the Spartans will lose to Northwestern, Penn State and Ohio State while knocking off Maryland and Rutgers.
FiveThirtyEight's playoff predictor gives Michigan State less than a 1% chance to win out. It also gives Michigan State less than a 1% chance to reach the College Football Playoff.
Michigan State's only loss this season is to fellow title contender Notre Dame, so the Spartans still definitely have a shot at controlling their own destiny. We'll see if they can prove everyone - including the computer models - wrong.