Skip to main content

ESPN Analyst: How Michigan Can Beat Notre Dame

A general view of Michigan Stadium during a sold out game.

ANN ARBOR, MI - SEPTEMBER 10: A general view of the game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on September 10, 2005 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

It isn't often that Michigan is an underdog at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. But based on their recent form and the fact that Notre Dame is a top ten team, the one-point spread for the Irish seems justified.

Michigan is coming off yet another loss to a top ten team in Penn State. Notre Dame, on the other hand, is coming off a bye following a three-game winning streak.

But the game is being played in Ann Arbor, and that could be the reason the spread isn't a bit higher.

Ahead of the big game, ESPN analyst Bill Connelly has outlined the odds of each team winning using the SP+ model.

Under his predictive model, he actually has Notre Dame as the underdog, with a 41-percent chance of winning the game. As for the final score prediction, Connelly's model has Michigan beating the spread and winning the game, 28-24.

Via ESPN:

How Notre Dame loses: Pretty easily, actually.

[...]

Frustrate Ian Book. Make the Irish run game work a lot harder than it had to against USC. Force the Irish defense to bend right into scoring opportunities. It's pretty easy to describe how Michigan wins this game ... though the Wolverines have proved that following said recipe isn't always easy when the spotlight's on.

With two losses on the season, Michigan's national title hopes are pretty much dashed. But they can still position themselves for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game if things break their way.

As for Notre Dame, they absolutely need this win if they have any hopes of returning to the College Football Playoff. The rest of their schedule is too light for them to be considered title contenders as a two-loss team.

Will Notre Dame pull off the road win over Michigan? Or will the Wolverines get the home upset?

[ESPN]