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There's Been A Big Shift In The Michigan-Notre Dame Betting Line

Notre Dame's Daelin Hayes chases Michigan quarterback.

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 01: Dylan McCaffrey #10 of the Michigan Wolverines tries to outrun the tackle of Daelin Hayes #9 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half at Notre Dame Stadium on September 1, 2018 in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame won the game 24-17. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Entering Saturday night's game, there seems to be a pretty wide perception gap between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Michigan Wolverines. Notre Dame has just one loss, to a very good Georgia team on the road, while Michigan is still reeling a bit from a drubbing at the hands of Wisconsin, and fell last week at Penn State.

Given all of the discussion around Jim Harbaugh's future in Ann Arbor, a casual fan could assume that Michigan would be a solid underdog on Saturday, even at home. And as of today, they would be right, as it turns out.

That wasn't how things started, though. A few days ago, this game opened with the Wolverines as a four-point favorite. Given home field advantage baked in, on a neutral site the line would have been around Michigan -1.

That line has shifted in a huge way.

As of this morning, we've had a full five-point shift, all the way to Notre Dame -1. It shouldn't be a huge surprise that there's a decent amount of money flowing to the Fighting Irish, but five points is still pretty surprising for any game.

Some of the advanced numbers for this one are all over the place.

ESPN's Football Power Index really likes the Fighting Irish on the road. The matchup predictor based on FPI gives Notre Dame a 62.2-percent chance to win the game. Given the line is just -1, that is a pretty big edge for Notre Dame.

The Worldwide Leader's newer efficiency metric, SP+, sees the game different. Bill Connelly, who created the system, tweeted out its picks for the week. It projected Michigan to win by the original four-point spread on the dot, 28-24. With the spread now five points in the other direction, that could be seen as some serious value for Wolverine bettors.

We'll find out how things shake out on Saturday night. The game in Ann Armor kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET.