The College Football Playoff race is an interesting as ever, as it seems like there are nine teams (Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, Utah, Alabama, Baylor, Minnesota) that still have a legitimate shot at being selected for the event. The biggest question, however, concerns whether the Crimson Tide are going to be able to sneak into the event without playing in the SEC title game.
Alabama will likely be ranked No. 5 on Tuesday night – behind LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia. The Crimson Tide, now without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, will take on rival Auburn on Saturday to finish up their season.
We thought it would be interesting to see what FiveThirtyEight’s playoff predictor says about one scenario that everyone seems to think is very possible.
- Clemson wins out
- Ohio State wins out, knocking out Minnesota
- LSU wins out, knocking out Georgia
- Oklahoma wins out, knocking out Baylor
- Utah wins out
- Alabama beats Auburn
FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Clemson, Ohio State and LSU virtually 100% chances of getting in. The fourth spot, in this scenario, would go to Oklahoma. The Sooners have a 72% chance of getting in.
Utah is next at 19%. Alabama would have just a 6% shot. FiveThirtyEight’s model clearly puts a lot of emphasis on a conference title.
Would the playoff committee jump Oklahoma over Alabama? Maybe. Paul Finebaum, who thinks Alabama is far better than Oklahoma, would disagree. But we’ll see.
Alabama has gotten in without winning the SEC before – just two years ago. This time around, it could prove to be much tougher.