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Recruiting Expert: There Are Only 13 College Football Teams That Can Win A National Championship

A general view during the first quarter of the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Clemson Tigers at Raymond James Stadium.

TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 09: A general view during the first quarter of the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Clemson Tigers at Raymond James Stadium on January 9, 2017 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images)

While most teams won't get started until Sept. 1, we're really only two days away from the start of the college football season at the FBS level. A few games will be played this Saturday.

We already have the two major polls out, and there is plenty of speculation about which teams will break through and contend for a national championship this fall.

According to one reliable metric, of the 130 teams in FBS, only 10-percent have the talent necessary to go to the College Football Playoff and win a title.

Every year, SB Nation's Bud Elliott puts together what he calls the "Blue Chip Ratio," a telling stat that predicts potential college football national championship teams.

The metric is pretty simple, and has worked out almost every year since recruiting sites began giving star ratings to recruits: if a team's roster of scholarship players is made up of at least 50-percent four and five-star players, it has the necessary talent to win a title.

This year, 13 teams fit the bill. Alabama leads the way, with 77-percent of its roster comprised of blue-chip players, while Notre Dame just barely makes it at 51-percent. The full list:

Alabama

77%

Ohio State

76%

USC

71%

Georgia

69%

Florida State

67%

LSU

63%

Auburn

62%

Clemson

61%

Michigan

57%

Texas

55%

Oklahoma

53%

Penn State

53%

Notre Dame

51%

Elliott broke down the last handful of years of national champions. Going back to 2011, the lowest percentage for a team was 2016 Clemson, which was at 52-percent. Still, it fit the ratio, and Deshaun Watson certainly helps.

In college football, it is very important for fans to have reasonable expectations in a given year. Some teams, like the ones above, and a few others on the fringe, can certainly look to compete for national titles.

Others have to look for incremental gains in recruiting, and continue to coach guys up. Penn State has knocked on the door of the playoff the last two years, but this year, is now in a position where it can make a run, based on the roster talent. The Nittany Lions' percentage of blue-chip players is up 12-percent from last year, as James Franklin's excellent signing day results continue to pile up.

If you root for one of these 13 teams, though, it is not unreasonable to start playing up the expectations.

[SB Nation]