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Computer Model Updates Its Playoff Prediction After Oklahoma's Loss

Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts falls into the end zone at Kansas State.

MANHATTAN, KS - OCTOBER 26: Quarterback Jalen Hurts #1 of the Oklahoma Sooners scores a touchdown against the Kansas State Wildcats during the first half at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium on October 26, 2019 in Manhattan, Kansas. (Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

Oklahoma suffered arguably the most-shocking upset loss of the college football regular season today. The previously-unbeaten Sooners fell on the road to Kansas State.

It was the first loss of the season for Lincoln Riley's team, which entered the day with serious College Football Playoff aspirations.

Those aspirations have taken a huge hit.

FiveThirtyEight has updated its College Football Playoff prediction following No. 5 Oklahoma's upset loss. The Sooners are now on the outside looking in.

  1. Clemson - 81 percent chance
  2. Ohio State - 69 percent chance
  3. Alabama - 52 percent chance
  4. LSU - 35 percent chance

Next up: Oklahoma with a 25 percent chance, Penn State with a 20 percent chance, Oregon with a 20 percent chance.

If the projections are right, the Sooners are still far from out of it. One of Alabama/LSU is going to lose in a couple of weeks when they meet in Tuscaloosa. If Oklahoma can win out, perhaps Jalen Hurts and Co. will find a way back in.

You can view 538's full model here.