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ESPN Model Predicts Score Of Ohio State vs. Michigan

EVANSTON, ILLINOIS - NOVEMBER 05: Head coach Ryan Day of the Ohio State Buckeyes talks with C.J. Stroud #7 against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Ryan Field on November 05, 2022 in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

EVANSTON, ILLINOIS - NOVEMBER 05: Head coach Ryan Day of the Ohio State Buckeyes talks with C.J. Stroud #7 against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Ryan Field on November 05, 2022 in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

All eyes are on Saturday afternoon's colossal showdown between Ohio State and Michigan.

While the Wolverines snapped a decade-long drought by besting the Buckeyes last year, an ESPN model doesn't forecast a repeat at Ohio Stadium.

Bill Connelly revealed his SP+ projections on Sunday evening. He has Ohio State securing a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game -- and presumably the College Football Playoff -- with a 28-22 victory over Michigan.

Connelly's model gives the Wolverines a 38 percent chance of winning. That's significantly better than the 28.2 percent probability from ESPN's FPI.

If the SP+ prediction holds, Michigan would cover the spread as a 7.5-point underdog. Of course, that won't offer the Wolverines much consolation if they fall short.

History backs the Buckeyes. Michigan hasn't won in Columbus since 2000. Last year marked the team's third victory over Ohio State in the last 20 years.

SP+ also projects TCU, USC, LSU, and Alabama to handle business with victories. That could potentially place Michigan's CFP outlook in jeopardy, as Jim Harbaugh's team has only played one ranked opponent (Penn State) so far this season.

The Game will begin Saturday at noon ET on FOX.