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ESPN Unveils New “Playoff Predictor” Metric

Georgia's offense lined up against Alabama's defense.

ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 08: The Georgia Bulldogs line up against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter in the CFP National Championship presented by AT&T at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 8, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Now is the time to get all of your preseason college football predictions in. The season starts in only a couple of weeks.

This morning, ESPN unveiled a new metric: the Playoff Predictor. It uses five key factors to determine which programs have the best chance to reach the playoff and win the national championship.

The five factors are: strength of record, FPI, number of losses, conference championships and independent status.

Using that criteria, here are the 10 teams ESPN feels have the best shot to reach the College Football Playoff, along with their percentage chance of getting there:

  • Clemson - 67 percent
  • Alabama - 47 percent
  • Georgia - 46 percent
  • Notre Dame - 42 percent
  • Washington - 41 percent
  • Ohio State - 37 percent
  • Oklahoma - 24 percent
  • Auburn - 17 percent
  • Penn State - 16 percent
  • Michigan State - 15 percent

Wisconsin is the only other team with a double-digit percentage (11 percent) of making the CFP. Additionally, while Notre Dame has a one percent higher shot of making the playoff than Washington does, the Huskies actually have a slight edge in winning the national championship, edging the Irish 11 percent to 10 percent.

What do these predictions mean? Not much of anything right now, but they are fun to talk about as we gear up for the season.

Check out the full ESPN 'Playoff Predictor' here.