ESPN’s Football Power Index updated its full projections for the 2019 college football season earlier in the week and it includes some surprises.
Most notably, there are a couple of major programs projected to have disappointing seasons this fall.
ESPN’s FPI, which uses thousands of simulations to project results, believes these five teams aren’t quite as good as the hype.
Meet the five teams below.
1. Ohio State
Preseason FPI rating: No. 13
Ohio State enters the first season of the post-Urban Meyer era with a lot of hope – as it should – but the FPI isn’t quite buying the Buckeyes as a top five (or even top 10) team right now.
This is probably due to the fact that Ohio State has both a first-year head coach in Ryan Day and a first-year quarterback in Justin Fields. Still, the Buckeyes are too talented to finish outside the top 10.
Preseason FPI rating: No. 24
The FPI also isn’t sold on Texas, despite the Longhorns coming into the 2019 season with a ton of hype.
Texas is “not back,” says the FPI, as the Longhorns are barely a top 25 team per the model.
Preseason FPI rating: No. 27
Miami was a flop in 2018, as the Hurricanes began the year ranked inside the top 10, only to end the year with a surprising head coaching change.
Tate Martell has transferred in from Ohio State, though it’s unclear if he’ll start.
4. Texas A&M
Preseason FPI ranking: No. 11
The FPI is actually pretty high on Texas A&M with its preseason ranking, though the Aggies are projected to finish with a disappointing record.
Texas A&M is projected to go 7.4-4.7 this season. The Aggies’ schedule is just brutal.
Preseason FPI ranking: No. 25
This could be a make-it-or-break-it year for Clay Helton, as many believed the Trojans were going to fire him following the 2018 season.
USC is projected to barely be a top 25 team in 2019, with the FPI predicting a disappointing 6.7-5.5 season in 2019.
That likely won’t cut it in Southern California.
You can view the full model here.