Skip to main content

ESPN's 538 Reveals The CFP "Doomsday" Scenario

ESPN breaks down latest Playoff rankings.

This College Football Playoff scenario would cause chaos.

With just two weeks left of regular season action, we're getting closer to deciding who are the four teams that will play for the title.

ESPN's 538 crunched the numbers and spit out what would be a "doomsday" scenario for the selection committee.

Out of 20,000 simulations, one of the simulations found nine teams with at least a 20-percent chance to make the playoff, hence a doomsday scenario.

Here what has to happen:

  1. Auburn defeats Alabama in the Iron Bowl
  2. Georgia wins out
  3. Clemson wins out
  4. USC wins out
  5. Ohio State wins the Big Ten
  6. TCU wins out (beats Oklahoma in Big 12 title game)
  7. Wisconsin loses to Michigan

This scenario would leave Clemson and Georgia with a 100-percent chance to make the playoff. Miami and USC would be left with a 40-percent chance, Alabama and Oklahoma with a 30-percent chance and Auburn, Ohio State, and TCU with a 20-percent chance.

So who would be in? Clemson (12-1) and Georgia (12-1) would be guaranteed a spot. Miami and Alabama would be left with just one loss, but no conference title. Ohio State, Oklahoma, and TCU would all have two-losses, with the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs owning a conference title.

This would definitely give the selection committee fits.

[ESPN 538]