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ESPN’s FPI Projects Oregon’s Record For The 2018 Season

The Oregon duck signals to the crowd.

SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 5: The Oregon Ducks mascot encourages fans against the Arizona Wildcats on December 5, 2014 during the Pac-12 Championship at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Oregon won 51-13. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

Despite a changing of the guard, a new-look Ducks squad under head coach Mario Cristobal is projected as a long shot to make the College Football Playoff.

ESPN's FPI has been updated to include projected win-loss records. The Ducks, who are the No. 23 ranked team per FPI, have a projected record of 8.3 wins and 3.8 losses.

A reminder on FPI:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

Basically, the formula suggests they can lose four games and still have a chance to capture the Pac-12 title. Keep in mind, the Ducks finished fourth in the Pac-12 North last season.

Oregon is given a .1 % chance to run the table, and a 3.8% chance to win the conference. They're playing against the 65th-hardest schedule in the country--meaning the Ducks have the easiest strength of schedule among Power 5 schools.

In an interesting twist of fate, former coach Chip Kelly's new squad--UCLA--has the toughest schedule in the country.

Here's a look at the top 25 of ESPN's FPI, right now. Washington, Stanford and USC are ahead of Oregon in the rankings.


ESPN projects Oregon will cruise in their first three match-ups to start the season against Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State, but will struggle in the following three against Stanford, Cal and Washington.

ESPN's Football Power Index Top 25.

You can check out ESPN's entire FPI here.