It’s early, but No. 1 Ohio State is currently losing to No. 8 Wisconsin, 7-0, in the second quarter of the Big Ten Championship Game.
Two College Football Playoff spots appear to be locked up, with LSU and Oklahoma winning their respective conference title games. A third is surely going to Clemson, which is blowing out Virginia.
What will happen to the fourth spot if Ohio State loses to Wisconsin?
Logic says the Buckeyes will still get in. The only other real options would be a two-loss Oregon team or a two-loss Badgers team.
Ohio State won’t have the conference title on its resume, but the Buckeyes have clearly been the superior team.
FiveThirtyEight’s computer model doesn’t agree with logic, though.
FiveThirtyEight gives Wisconsin a 50 percent chance of making the playoff with a win. It gives Ohio State a 42 percent chance of making it with a loss.
The computer model appears to put too much of an emphasis on conference championships. They matter, of course, but probably not as much as it thinks.
Ohio State can make all of this irrelevant with a strong performance moving forward.
The Buckeyes and the Badgers are playing on FOX.