10 Things More Likely Than Picking A Perfect NCAA Tournament Bracket
PITTSBURGH, PA - MARCH 15: A general view of the court with March Madness signage is seen prior to the start of the game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Rhode Island Rams in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at PPG PAINTS Arena on March 15, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Every year, countless college basketball fans — and neutral bystanders picking the cooler mascot — go on the mythical quest to pick a perfect NCAA tournament bracket.
Don't get your hopes up. Nobody has ever submitted a verified perfect bracket, and the chances of it ever occurring are astronomically low.
The NCAA noted that the odds of correctly predicting every game are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 if treating each matchup as a coin flip. They improved those odds to a mere 1 in 120.2 billion "if you know a little something about basketball."
In other words, even basketball junkies will almost certainly get some games wrong.
Just how unlikely is that perfect bracket? There's a better chance of any of these statistical improbabilities occurring.
Getting into Yale
Yale will try to instantly bust some brackets when facing No. 4 Auburn in the men's opening round. Those student-athletes know something about beating the odds.
Yale's acceptance rate dropped to 4.5 percent in 2023. While that represents the prestigious school's lowest rate ever recorded, a C-student with no extracurriculars and average SAT scores still may have a better shot at getting into the Ivy League institution than picking a perfect bracket.
An Undefeated College Basketball Season
DALLAS, TX - APRIL 02: Head coach Dawn Staley of the South Carolina Gamecocks cuts down the net after her teams championship win over the Mississippi State Lady Bulldogs after the championship game of the 2017 NCAA Women's Final Four at American Airlines Center on April 2, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
South Carolina enters the women's tournament with an unblemished 32-0 record. The Gamecocks will look to become the 10th women's squad to complete a perfect season.
Some people may pick against South Carolina based on the sheer improbability of going undefeated all year. Still, there's a much better chance of Dawn Staley's squad winning 38 straight games than anyone else getting all 63 games right on their bracket.
Getting Struck By Lightning
About 2,000 people are struck by lightning every year. There's a 1 in 15,300 chance of it happening to somebody in the United States, which equates to .000065 percent.
Likely? No, but there are recorded cases of it actually happening. The same can't be said for a perfect bracket.
Shark Attack
A shark attack is even less likely, with one source setting the odds at 1 to 11.5 million. Those odds should calm anyone nervous about getting in the water, but the March Madness waves are far more treacherous.
Getting a Hole-In-One (Twice)
GULLANE, SCOTLAND - AUGUST 02: A detailed shot of a golf ball on a tee during a practice round prior to the AIG Women's Open at Muirfield on August 02, 2022 in Gullane, Scotland. (Photo by Naomi Baker/R&A/R&A via Getty Images)
The National Hole-in-One Registry estimates that the average golfer has a 12,500 to 1 chance of getting a hole-in-one. The odds of pulling off the rarified feat twice in the same round shrink to a microscopic 67 million to 1. So you're telling me there's a chance.
At least casual golfers can take lessons and hit the course more often to perfect their swings in hopes of accomplishing an ace. However, practice won't make perfect when it comes to March Madness brackets.
Pitching a Perfect Game
Domingo Germán threw the 24th perfect game in MLB history on June 28, 2023. It was the first time anybody recorded all 27 outs without allowing a baserunner in 11 years.
Everything needs to go just right to throw a perfect game. One ball four just outside a strike zone, a poorly placed blooper, or even an umpire making the wrong call can block a pitcher from immortality.
The odds of an average pitcher doing it are around 20,000 to 1, which feels like a cakewalk compared to a perfect bracket.
Winning The Lottery
The odds of winning the upcoming Mega Millions jackpot are 1 in 302.6 million. That feels as likely as hitting a free throw compared to filling out a perfect bracket.
Look, we're not saying you should empty your savings and purchase a bunch of lottery tickets. The odds are still monumentally stacked against you. But unlike submitting a perfect bracket, someone can win.
Making The NBA
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 29: A general view of the board after the first round of the 2021 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on July 29, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images)
Most of the players competing in the NCAA tournament won't turn pro. A men's basketball player has a 1.2 percent chance of making it to the next level, and that drops to 0.8 percent for a women's basketball player.
Only a select few elite athletes achieve the dream of playing professional sports, so it's not a feasible outcome for your average rec-league player. Then again, you might have a better shot of playing with Stephen Curry then correctly prognosticating every game.
Having Quintuplets
A parent is more likely to give birth to a full starting lineup than achieve bracket perfection. The odds of having quintuplets are estimated at 1 in 47,458,321 pregnancies.
That perfect bracket is still less likely than giving birth to sextuplets (1 in 3,939,040,643 pregnancies).
Winning Your Bracket Pool
Nobody is perfect, and that should be a comfort to anyone filling out a bracket. You don't need to nail every game to finish atop your pool.
So don't fret when your early upset flops and a team in your Sweet 16 gets eliminated in the first round. There's more margin for error than you realize, as everybody else is simultaneously cursing their missed calls.
Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. Relax, have fun, and enjoy the madness.
