History tells us we will have some surprises during the first two days of the NCAA Tournament. Every year, there are multiple double-digit seeds that pull first-round upsets, none more surprising than last year’s 16-seed over a No. 1.
ESPN’s BPI projections include percentages that each team has of winning a given round. For example, Duke has a 99.3 percent chance of winning its first round game and a 90.4 percent chance of winning in the second round and reaching the Sweet 16.
Of all the higher-seeded teams, Florida, the No. 10 seed in the West, has the best chance of winning its first round game. The Gators take on seventh-seeded Nevada.
According to the BPI, Florida has a 43.7 percent chance of beating the Wolf Pack. That still makes Nevada the favorite, but gives the Gators the best odds of any double-digit seed.
Florida and Nevada will play at 6:50 p.m. ET on Thursday.
You can view the full BPI projections for the NCAA Tournament here.
The action begins tonight with the first two games of the “First Four” in Dayton. Two more games will follow tomorrow before the Round of 64 commences on Thursday.
To see The Spun’s staff picks for this year’s NCAA Tournament, click here.