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Computer Model Predicts What No. 16 Seed Has Best Chance Of Upset

UMBC basketball players during NCAA Tournament.

CHARLOTTE, NC - MARCH 18: K.J. Maura #11 and teammate Jairus Lyles #10 of the UMBC Retrievers look on against the Kansas State Wildcats during the second round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Spectrum Center on March 18, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

NCAA Tournament history was made last year, when UMBC became the first No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed, knocking off Virginia.

Will it happen again this year?

According to ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, it probably will not.

ESPN's Basketball Power Index has released its full projections for this year's NCAA Tournament, outlining odds for every game and potential matchup.

The BPI gives every 16-seed a less than 2 percent chance of winning its first round game, though one team does have a better chance than the rest.

According to ESPN's BPI, No. 16 seed Iona has the best chance of winning a first round game. The Midwest Region's 16-seed has a 1.8 percent chance of upsetting No. 1 North Carolina.

Gardner-Webb is next, with a 1.4 percent chance of upsetting No. 1 Virginia in the South Region.

You can view all of ESPN's picks here.

The NCAA Tournament begins on Tuesday, with the First Four games starting in Dayton. The first round begins on Thursday.