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ESPN Computer Model's Playoff Predictions Going Into Week 4

A closeup of Dabo Swinney celebrating a college football win.

CHARLOTTE, NC - DECEMBER 01: Head coach Dabo Swinney of the Clemson Tigers reacts against the Pittsburgh Panthers in the first quarter during their game at Bank of America Stadium on December 1, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

We're just three weeks into the college football season. While it's still early, the true contenders are starting to emerge.

ESPN's FiveThirtyEight has released its College Football Playoff predictions heading into Week 4. The top four teams aren't too surprising.

According to the computer model, Clemson has a 75% chance to reach the playoff. FiveThirtyEight also gives the Tigers a 25% chance to win the title.

Both marks are the best in the country, and by a large margin too. Clemson's remaining schedule is more than manageable given the ACC's lack of quality teams.

Alabama has the second best odds at a 46% chance to be selected to the CFP. That's a whopping 29 percentage points lower than Clemson's odds. Given Bama plays a difficult SEC schedule, that makes sense — Georgia and LSU pose as major threats to win the SEC.

But the Crimson Tide have an 18% chance to win the championship — just seven percentage points lower than the Tiger's chances.

Here's FiveThirtyEight's full playoff prediction. The first percentage shows the team's chance to make the playoff while the second percentage is the current odds to win the national championship.

  1. Clemson 75% / 25%
  2. Alabama 46% / 18%
  3. Oklahoma 37% / 8%
  4. Ohio State 33% / 8%

The Sooners and Buckeyes make up the last two spots. Both have looked impressive, but have yet to play quality opponents.

In reality, these odds will adjust often throughout the year. But it's fun to consider the potential playoff games. The rest of FiveThirtyEight's odds can be found here.

Which team not included in the top four has the best chance to reach the playoff?