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RGIII Names Second-Year Quarterback Most Likely To Win Super Bowl

Former Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III at a game in Waco.

WACO, TX - AUGUST 31: Former Baylor Bears quarterback Robert Griffin III attends a game between the Southern Methodist Mustangs and the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium on August 31, 2014 in Waco, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Joe Burrow came one victory shy of claiming a Super Bowl title for the Cincinnati Bengals in his second NFL season. The class of 2021 quarterback crop has a tough act to follow, especially since most of them struggled as rookies.

It's hard to see a second-year passer following Burrow's lead, let alone finishing the job with a championship. Yet Robert Griffin III identified the quarterback with the best chance of winning a title before his peers.

"Mac Jones is MOST LIKELY to win a ring FIRST of the rookie QBs who played serious time last year," Griffin wrote Tuesday on Twitter. "Bill Belichick and the Patriots are defensive masterminds, out coach other teams and Mac Attack will stretch the field more after last year has his confidence on ROLL TIDE LEVELS."

It's important to note the caveat of quarterbacks "who played serious time last year." That should exclude Trey Lance, who's expected to take the starting job for a San Francisco 49ers squad that just reached the NFC Championship Game. He only made two starts behind Jimmy Garoppolo last season.

When removing Lance, it's hardly a bold statement.

While their respective teams will hope to see marked improvements from Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields in 2022, there's a miniscule chance of those young passers guiding the Jaguars, Jets, or Bears to a championship. The playoffs are a longshot in each instance.

Davis Mills is also highly unlikely to carry the Houston Texans to a Super Bowl. A winning record would be a major accomplishment for a third-round pick leading a rebuilding roster.

Jones, meanwhile, had the best rookie season of the 2021 quarterback class. He took the 10-7 Patriots to the playoffs with 3,801 passing yards and 22 touchdowns through the air. The Alabama alum will now team up with wide receiver DeVante Parker, who tallied 1,202 receiving yards and nine touchdowns for the Miami Dolphins in 2019.

Assuming RGIII intentionally kept Lance out of the discussion, Jones is by far the second-year quarterback with the best chance of playing postseason football. However, Belichick's defense took a considerable hit by losing star cornerback J.C. Jackson to the Los Angeles Chargers.

To quantify their chances, DraftKings Sportsbook gives the Patriots +5000 odds of winning the Super Bowl. That amounts to a 2 percent implied probability. 

The Jaguars and Jets are each at +13000, followed by the Bears at +15000 and Texans at an NFL-worst +25000. But Lance's 49ers have a better shot at +1600.