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ESPN Computer Says Top Program Had 99-Percent Chance To Win Game Before Blowing It

Oregon football had a big win against Stanford locked up tonight. Until it didn't.

The No. 20 Ducks had the ball and a 31-28 lead, with less than a minute left. A few kneels and maybe a punt, and the game was all but sealed.

Instead, new Oregon coach Mario Cristobal and his coaching staff elected to run a dive on 2nd-and-3. CJ Verdell, who had a game-high 115 yards and a touchdown on the game, fumbled, giving Stanford the ball.

K.J. Costello led Stanford on a 47-yard drive to set up a 32-yard game-tying field goal by Jet Toner. In overtime, Costello found Colby Parkinson for an incredible touchdown, and Justin Herbert was intercepted in the end zone to seal the game, 38-31 Stanford.

Amazingly, Oregon football blew a 99-percent chance to win the game.

ESPN's win probability model was truly a site to be hold.

That number came before another incredible turn of events that got Stanford back into things.

Verdell had what looked like a touchdown run to make it 30-7 overturned. On the next play, Stanford returned a fumble 80 yards for a touchdown. After a quick Oregon three-and-out, Costello completed two big passes, setting up a 22-yard Bryce Love touchdown to make it 24-21.

That all took about 2:30 off the clock at the end of the third quarter, and completely swung the game, from what looked like it was turning into a blowout Oregon win at home.

However, Oregon could, and should, have recovered. Right before Verdell's late fumble, Oregon's win percentage was back up to 98.7-percent.

Stanford beat Oregon.

Mario Cristobal is going to want that game back for a long, long time.