One of the major highlights of this college football weekend is the annual Florida-Georgia game in Jacksonville. This year, the Gators and Bulldogs enter with one loss each, and the chance to take a stranglehold on the SEC East race.
Florida is the higher-ranked team entering the game, coming in at No. 6 in the latest AP Top 25. Georgia is two spots behind, at No. 8.
Georgia started the year as the perceived College Football Playoff contender, and is probably the more talented roster from top to bottom. Florida, which suffered its only loss to new No. 1 LSU, has the sturdier resume at this point.
The Dawgs opened as a 6.5-point favorite for this weekend's game.
ESPN's Bill Connelly, who created the SP+ system that measures team efficiency, put out its score projections for this weekend's games. SP+ is less reactive to wins and losses than it is the actual play-by-play results on the field. This week, it has Georgia ranked No. 6, and Florida down at No. 13.
SP+ projects a 29-23 Georgia win, which puts it right at that betting line with a half-point Florida cover. He rounds down things to that score, though SP+ actually likes Georgia by 6.8, which would mean a slight Georgia cover if you bump it to 30-23.
The total score projection for the game comes in over the 47 point mark set by sportsbooks.
It is hard not to see a close game here, which would lend to a Florida cover, but if Georgia can get its running game going, it is always hard to handle.